As previewed last year, the IMF has introduced a new matrix for setting borrowing ceilings for low income country Fund programmes. The new matrix replaces conditions prohibiting contraction of debt with a grant element of less than 35%. Instead the borrowing ceiling will take account of a country’s debt vulnerability (measured by its DSF debt distress rating) and its macroeconomic and public financial management capacity (measured by CPIA and PEFA indices). Countries with high debt vulnerabilities and low capacity will face tighter concessionality requirements (minimum 35% grant element) than those with low debt vulnerabilities and high capacity (for the most more advanced LICs there will be no concessionality limit).

For a more detailed discussion of these limits see www.imf.org/external/ and www.imf.org

At a symposium in Vienna to prepare the 2010 UN Development Cooperation Forum, more than 180 international aid experts discussed how best to promote mutual accountability for aid effectiveness and results, and how to monitor and analyse the results of South-South cooperation. DFI prepared background analytical studies on mutual accountability and South-South-cooperation for the meeting. To access other documents relating to the meeting please click here.

DFI gave a keynote presentation at the 2009 UNCTAD Debt Management Conference in Geneva on why transparent debt strategies are essential. how to formulate and implement them, and what has been achieved so far in this field. To see the presentation, please click here.

The last meeting of the HIPC Ministerial Forum took place in Istanbul on 3 October followed by a press conference on 4 October. This meeting focused on debt sustainability and the MDGs,climate change finance, and future plans for debt strategy capacity-building. To access the background paper click here and for the Ministers’ communiqué please click here.

At its March meeting in London, the G20 asked Gordon Brown, in his capacity as Chair of the G20, to review the flexibility and adaptability of the IFIs to promote global growth. As part of this review, DFID asked DFI to conduct a consultation of LIC Ministers of Finance, and ODI a web-based consultation of other stakeholders from LICs. Please see the communiqués of LIC Ministers meetings in Freetown and London. For the wider stakeholder consultation, please click here. For Gordon Brown’s report on the IFIs please click here.

According to an IMF report, a sharp contraction in export growth, FDI inflows, and remittances means economic growth this year is projected to be less than half its pre-crisis level.The risks to the financial sector from a domestic economic slowdown are a concern and have to be closely monitored. But growth is expected to rebound in 2010 in line with the global recovery, as rising world demand and improved access to foreign capital enable private sector growth.

The Bank of Ghana's foreign investment survey for 2008 found significant foreign inflows, over half of which were FDI, and the rest trade credits and loans. Even FDI had a high debt component (62%). FDI equity concentrated in three sectors: transport, storage and communication; banking; and mining. It came mainly from Europe (60%) and Africa (38%). Portfolio equity investment remained low, and mainly in mining and transport. The survey also tracked an increase in investment by Ghanaian residents abroad.

Inflation was found to have the strongest negative effect on doing business, by labour market rigidities. Positive factors were domestic market size; access to finance and credit; and efficiency of banking, telecoms and internet services. Businesses gave strong signals to expand their activities over the next three years.

The IMF and IDA have published their latest annual HIPC and MDRI Status of Implementation report. In the last year, three countries reached completion point (Burundi, Central Africa Republic and Haiti) and two countries (Cote d’Ivoire and Togo) reached decision point, making a total of 26 (out of 40) countries which have now reached their completion points countries, with a further 9 countries being past their decision points.

For more details, go to www.imf.org/external/pp

The report also notes the progress in debt relief provided by commercial creditors and a reduction in the number of HIPCs’ authorities being sued, from 33 to 14 cases in the past year. However, progress in relief from non-Paris Club creditors has been limited.

For more information, see www.imf.org/external/np

The IMF’s review of the Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF), its analytical tool for conducing debt sustainability analysis (DSA), recommends the following:

• More account to be taken of the impact of public investment on growth in DSAs,
• Increased consideration of remittances in the determination of debt distress ratings,
• Reducing the ‘threshold’ effects of changes in CPIA ratings,
• Lowering the DSF discount rate from 5% to 4%,
• Appling greater flexibility in treating state-owned enterprise external borrowings,
• Taking more account of Government’s views in DSA documents.

For more information go to www.imf.org/external/np

The Fund has proposed a new matrix-type framework for determining borrowing limits in Fund programmes. Instead of the one-size fits all approach, the Fund proposes that nonconcessional borrowing limits reflect low income countries’ capacities, as measured by its CPIA rating, and its external debt distress rating resulting from the DSF DSAs.

For more information go to www.imf.org/external/np/pp/en