January 20, 2020
 
 
 
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Macro Economic Analysis Training Materials

To evaluate long-term debt sustainability, debt strategy analysis needs to be conducted within a macroeconomic context, with 20 years of projections. The key macro variables used to assess sustainability are exports of goods and non-factor services, budget domestic revenues and GDP.

Main tasks of national macroeconomic analysts;

  • To review recent economic trends, current macroeconomic projections and the impact of aid flows
  • To prepare a baseline macro scenario (based on the latest projections agreed with the IMF) and two alternative macro scenarios (usually one optimistic and one pessimistic scenario)
  • To analyse the macro implications of the simulation results


The training materials for conducting a national debt and aid strategy workshop are comprised of the following for each of the technical areas:

  • training manual tasks, explaining how to do conduct the relevant tasks and analyses
  • training manual tables, to assist with the analysis and recording of outcomes in Excel spreadsheets
  • reference materials, providing more in-depth explanatory and background information, including on international best practices


The CBP workshop manual also contains the preliminary documents setting out the workshop prerequisites and sample timetable and plenary, scenario and results tasks which related to the plenary sessions for all technical groups. In addition, the CBP provides a Training for Trainers Guide which accompanies the DSA national strategy workshop manual.

 

 

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